[RatedG²]

Originally posted by Retro

?? And she won NH last time, despite that "landslide" lead, and has her own "landslide" lead in just about every other state AND in superdelegates. Don't get your hopes up, because Iowa and NH or not, Bernie will not win the nomination.

Let them celebrate this. Bernie is doing well. I've said it in this thread multiple times that the nomination won't be as easy as the media (at first) assumed it would be so good on Bernie for doing well to this point

I still support Hillary and still think she will be the nominee but you never know.

[heckinglovato]

Queen of winning in New Hampshire and coming third in Iowa, not even second
But yeah national polling doesn't matter nearly as much as IA and NH do now, and let's not forget that Sanders' +14 lead in NH is almost double Obama's lead in 2008 at this point, so it's getting much clearer who's getting NH this time around.

[Retro]

Originally posted by heckinglovato

Queen of winning in New Hampshire and coming third in Iowa, not even second
But yeah national polling doesn't matter nearly as much as IA and NH do now.

... Yes it does. It's an aggregate indicator of how they'll do with overall delegate count, given that Dem primaries award delegates to be proportional to the actual votes. IA and NH matter way less than people like to make them seem, especially if the results are close. Losing them can cause problems for a front runner, but by no means are they a death sentence or and indicator that the fronteunner will lose.

[RatedG²]

I mean it's cute Bernie is winning New Hampshire and Iowa (I still think Hillary will win one of those two) but let's say he does win both. That still won't prevent the Super Tuesday firewall Clinton has, like she is in position to blow him out of the waters in every Southern state.

The race is tightening, definitely, but at this point I wouldn't really call it a battle. More like a few roadblocks

[heckinglovato]

We all know that Iowa and New Hampshire are win one or go home primaries, there's no need to conceal the truth. If this "roadblock" ends up winning both states as the polls currently indicate, it's over for the national frontrunner!!!11!!

[Retro]

Originally posted by heckinglovato

We all know that Iowa and New Hampshire are win one or go home primaries, there's no need to conceal the truth. If this "roadblock" ends up winning both states as the polls currently indicate, it's over for the national frontrunner!!!11!!

Yeah, no.

[RatedG²]

Historically that's been true. But 2016 is different. She could lose both states and still win the nomination comfortably

It's only been "win one or go home" because usually no candidate has such a huge lead over the others so any small momentum and others hop on board.

Clinton is the strongest non-incumbent/non VP democratic candidate in the history of the country so there's no precedent for her that holds true

[RatedG²]

Currently browsing: 8 members (‎RatedG²*, ‎heckinglovato, ‎Lights and Waves, ‎LuLuDrops, ‎Hannah Hunt, ‎Adonis), 6 guests.

yasss @ the ratings coming in this thread

[heckinglovato]

Isn't she leading by like 11 pts nationally and losing in both key states? I don't see the huge lead that exempts her from the win one or go home notion...

[heckinglovato]

Originally posted by RatedG²

yasss @ the ratings coming in this thread

Rise up, lotus, rise... just like Bernie's polls

[Gladion]

When is the next debate?

[Retro]

Originally posted by heckinglovato

Isn't she leading by like 11 pts nationally and losing in both key states? I don't see the huge lead that exempts her from the win one or go home notion...

She's leading by an average of about 16 points nationally, and up to 39 points according to the most recent poll released.

Furthermore, you are failing to assess individual states, delegate allocation, and superdelegates. Let's all remember how Iowa and NH do NOT have high delegate counts.

[RatedG²]

Originally posted by heckinglovato

Isn't she leading by like 11 pts nationally and losing in both key states? I don't see the huge lead that exempts her from the win one or go home notion...

South Carolina, one of the Super Tuesday voting states (correct me if I'm wrong but I believe it is) Clinton has about a 40 point lead. Same thing in almost every other state. Now most of these were conducted at the end of 2015 but still, she could lose both of the early states and still sweep

Not saying she would but it's not out of the realm of possibility. I hope she doesn't lose both states but if she does it's not over for her. And like I said before, she already is 15% of the way to the nomination so if she keeps it close in Iowa and New Hampshire and sweeps as polled currently she can win this well before June

[RatedG²]

Originally posted by HausofNiko

When is the next debate?

January 14th, 9pm EST Fox Business

[accelgors]

i mean, bernie is doing waaaaaaaaay better than i thought he would (i'm actually seeing bernie stickers back at college. it's not a surprise here in NOVA but that's further south and he has support there), but i still wouldn't get my hopes up at all for him winning the primary

[RatedG²]

Originally posted by accelgors

i mean, bernie is doing waaaaaaaaay better than i thought he would (i'm actually seeing bernie stickers back at college. it's not a surprise here in NOVA but that's further south and he has support there), but i still wouldn't get my hopes up at all for him winning the primary

If there's any point in time for you to get your hopes up for him to win, it'd be now. As heckinglovato et al. pointed out, he's doing better than ever polling wise and is looking to take this all the way to the convention.

But if you don't wanna get your hopes up that's okay too, you could always vote for Hillary

[LuLuDrops]

Originally posted by RatedG²

yasss @ the ratings coming in this thread

Hi henny

[heckinglovato]

Actually the most recent poll claims Hillary's lead over Bernie nationally has nearly vanished (+4 pts) and the current average polling shows her leading by only +16 pts, that's only 6 points more than her national lead over Obama at this point (+10). I'm not suggesting either of them has thing on lock, but no he is clearly not just a "roadblock", this is a serious battle and the current polling numbers don't indicate that she'd be able to get away with not winning either Iowa or NH.

[TikiMiss]

Originally posted by Kim Kardashian

Trying not to get my hopes up but wow, the coincidence is striking.

the difference is Obama had 90% of the black vote. If Obama didn't have the black vote, Clinton would have beat him by 20%. The blacks saved Obama's neck in 2008.

[Lose My Breath]

We're getting close to some of the first states