[Ozzy8923]

Anyways, I have my reasoning for my prediction. Kinda using Miley as the blueprint for it. She debuted with 191K in 2010 for Can't Be Tamed and then did 214K in 2013 with We Can't Stop despite Can't Be Tamed not being a big hit. Work Bitch is comparable to Can't Be Tamed (debuted with 175K) and both sold around the same in the US (1M) and WCS came after a 3 year break and Miley not really having a hit for 4 years. PG is coming after a 1.5 year break and also 4 years since Britney's last solo hit. Both songs kinda incorporate that urban sound that is a different direction from the dance Pop leads that preceded them. The similarities are there.

And both songs had BBMA promo (Britney performing and Miley presented and mentioned the song). Viral video next!

[alestevens]

Originally posted by Retro

Leaks don't matter much now. Huge chunks of Problem leaked a couple days in advance and it opened with 438K; I honestly see a potential for 300K from PG. I'd say 150K is my low end.

Problem had like a good 4 days of preorders before the release tho!

[Anticipating]

Originally posted by Ozzy8923

Anyways, I have my reasoning for my prediction. Kinda using Miley as the blueprint for it. She debuted with 191K in 2010 for Can't Be Tamed and then did 214K in 2013 with We Can't Stop despite Can't Be Tamed not being a big hit. Work Bitch is comparable to Can't Be Tamed (debuted with 175K) and both sold around the same in the US (1M) and WCS came after a 3 year break and Miley not really having a hit for 4 years. PG is coming after a 1.5 year break and also 4 years since Britney's last solo hit. Both songs kinda incorporate that urban sound that is a different direction from the dance Pop leads that preceded them. The similarities are there.

And both songs had BBMA promo (Britney performing and Miley presented and mentioned the song). Viral video next!

You do make a good point. WCS bombed on radio and this will most likely do well so that's a plus. Britney's fan base is bigger than Miley's and Iggy should help a bit too. Her fan base is not that big but it's something.

[Retro]

Originally posted by alestevens

What? The #10 on the Hot 100 sold 102K, had 4.6M streams and 80M Airplay. We need way more than 100K for it to reach the Top 10

If next week's prospective #10 mimics these numbers, we need 244K raw sales to beat it... without any streaming or AI.

I think it'll debut top 10 for sure - 200K sales, 30m AI, and about 1.5m streams would do the trick as far as Hot 100 points, and I still think sales could be bigger than that.

If it doesn't manage top 10 in the first week, then the video boost for the second week will almost guarantee top 10, and the BBMA's in the third week will probably boost sales - potentially higher than its debut, actually.

I really think this could do well for her.

[Anticipating]

Still trending!

[Retro]

Originally posted by alestevens

Problem had like a good 4 days of preorders before the release tho!

It still had that leak going on. If sales were going to be hurt, they would have been lower; the first 7 days even without preorders are virtually certain to have been well over 300k, since it's not like many people actually preorder singles on iTunes.

[Baby Boy]

150k-200k for sure.

[°ColdFire°]

Madonna recently admitted during a Q and A that she would definitely be up for doing another collaboration with our Queen Britney Spears. She said:

I am up for it. I am a big Britney Spears Fan. So we will see what happens!

[Anticipating]

Also, according to someone on UKMix who has been right about other things this era, there is a CC deal.

[Ecstasy]

I feel sentimental, like we have all been through so much together this past 2 years, we really earned this break. P.S. Why is nobody mentioning the elephant in the room (not a fat joke). Why is Timber here Are we gonna wait till Kisuke comes in too

[Baby Boy]

You guys thinking she'll barely scrape 100k.
It'll do at least 150k.

[Retro]

Originally posted by Anticipating

Also, according to someone on UKMix who has been right about other things this era, there is a CC deal.

Oh my god.

She could get 50m AI in that case - that's huge. That would put us T10 with just 200k sales and zero streams.

[phatty033]

any chance of this getting spun on urban or nah?

[Baby Boy]

Originally posted by Anticipating

Also, according to someone on UKMix who has been right about other things this era, there is a CC deal.

Hope so. I believe it too, makes sense why she's doing Ryan & Elvis on Monday. Hope they have a lyric video for Monday too. Even if it's basic. We just need something.

[Baby Boy]

Originally posted by phatty033

any chance of this getting spun on urban or nah?

Are rhythmic & urban the same or different? 'Cause I think Iggy does well on rhythmic so we'll have that going for us.

[Ozzy8923]

I'd love to see the history of Britney's singles. Like how much each single sold first week, second week, third etc. Is there anywhere we can find that?

[Retro]

Originally posted by Baby Boy

Hope so. I believe it too, makes sense why she's doing Ryan & Elvis on Monday. Hope they have a lyric video for Monday too. Even if it's basic. We just need something.

If they throw out a lyric vid on Monday, we'll really know they're serious for the song. It'll basically have her most aggressive promotion since the FF era - CC deal, lyric vid, BBMA's, MV second week, high profile collab...

I'm getting excited.

[Baby Boy]

I'm happy we have CONFIRMED promo 'cause at least if the song *knocks on wood* peaks at #11 or #12 like Work Bitch. We can just hope, the video will boost it into the top ten the following week, and if not, after the performance.

Still think it'll debut top ten though. Most of the songs in the top ten are so ****ing old now.

[Baby Boy]

Originally posted by Retro

If they throw out a lyric vid on Monday, we'll really know they're serious for the song. It'll basically have her most aggressive promotion since the FF era - CC deal, lyric vid, BBMA's, MV second week, high profile collab...

I'm getting excited.

The fact that Work Bitch didn't even get a lyric video in its second week when we still didn't have a video. It's like they wanted it to flop.

[phatty033]

Originally posted by Baby Boy

Are rhythmic & urban the same or different? 'Cause I think Iggy does well on rhythmic so we'll have that going for us.

different.

Fancy got urban spins, but PG is a bit more pop so i'm not sure if urban stations will play it.