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Chart Listings: Billboard Charts (November 26-December 3, 2014)
Member Since: 12/15/2008
Posts: 38,248
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Quote:
Originally posted by umich
#1 debuts, as always, depend on the current #1's strength at the time.
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Exactly, it always depends. It's not some random quantity and "oh yeah, you will be #1 guaranteed" it depends
Quote:
Originally posted by fridayteenage
Block ha, Selena, help your BFF get ha revenge.
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OMG 
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Member Since: 11/10/2011
Posts: 14,820
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^ Well, I reckon about 600,000 would *almost* guarantee #1.
400,000 definitely wouldn't though, probably only on the weakest weeks, you'd need a bit of airplay and streaming to get #1 with 400,000 sales.
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Member Since: 7/4/2007
Posts: 24,859
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Well so far in the streaming era, only 2 songs went #1 the week they went on sale:
The Lord's WANE
The Lord's SIO
I don't really feel like seeing any non-holy songs join that list.
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Member Since: 2/15/2012
Posts: 15,569
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Quote:
Originally posted by Rafael.
Habits died so fast.  I was sure it was meant to go #1. |
The next number one may not even be in the top twenty right now, to be honest.
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ATRL Contributor
Member Since: 12/7/2008
Posts: 87,284
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I can see Blank Space having 8 weeks at #1 as well
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Member Since: 7/4/2007
Posts: 24,859
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Quote:
Originally posted by ClashAndBurn
The next number one may not even be in the top twenty right now, to be honest.
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Yes, Style is not in the T20 yet. 
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Member Since: 2/15/2012
Posts: 15,569
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Quote:
Originally posted by fridayteenage
Yes, Style is not in the T20 yet. |
Hmm
Anyway, the only other song in the top 20 that has a hope of going number one at this rate is "Lips Are Movin'," but that's just because I don't even have any grasp of what it's potential could grow to be. And even then, I see it peaking similarly to "Black Widow" at the moment.
Edit: Oh yeah, there's also "Uptown Funk," I guess...
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Member Since: 6/6/2011
Posts: 48,509
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Quote:
Originally posted by ClashAndBurn
The next number one may not even be in the top twenty right now, to be honest.
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#40 to be exact.
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Member Since: 2/15/2012
Posts: 15,569
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Quote:
Originally posted by I'mRihannaFan
#40 to be exact.
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I would love for "Thinking Out Loud" to be humongous, but digital sales have a high probability of holding him back, just as they did with "The A Team" and "Sing." Hoping for him to get a second top ten though.
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ATRL Contributor
Member Since: 11/5/2011
Posts: 100,491
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Quote:
Originally posted by ClashAndBurn
The next number one may not even be in the top twenty right now, to be honest.
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True. It hasn't even been released yet.
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Member Since: 6/6/2011
Posts: 48,509
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Quote:
Originally posted by ClashAndBurn
I would love for "Thinking Out Loud" to be humongous, but digital sales have a high probability of holding him back, just as they did with "The A Team" and "Sing." Hoping for him to get a second top ten though.
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Nah, TOL will sell a lot. A top10 is a given.
The song is already top20 on iTunes, he has to perform it yet and the song is missing pop radio support (so far).
Already #3 on Spotify as well.
The song is a monster everywhere, it will be in the US as well.
VSFS promo in a week, hopefully The Voice finale as well.
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Member Since: 12/15/2008
Posts: 38,248
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Waiit, Ed is going to perform "Thinking Out Loud" on VSFS  I forgot about that
So far I feel Taylor has like 5 weeks on lock, it's hard to say "Oh, 8, 9 or whatever" since you don't know which song can make the difference and explode on sales and goes viral
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Member Since: 1/1/2014
Posts: 43,331
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I think Uptown Funk will be the next #1, and it'll take over in mid Jan.
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Member Since: 7/4/2007
Posts: 24,859
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Quote:
Originally posted by umich
True. It hasn't even been released yet.
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I don't think Bad Blood Remix Featuring Lady Gaga will be the 3rd single actually.
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ATRL Contributor
Member Since: 4/5/2014
Posts: 5,828
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Quote:
Originally posted by ARTPØP
My typically illogical predictions.
(01) Blank Space || iTunes: #1 || Radio: #4 || Spotify: N/A (=)
(02) Take Me To Church || iTunes: #4 || Radio: #14 || Spotify: #1 (+1)
(03) All About That Bass || iTunes: #5 || Radio: #8 || Spotify: #14
(04) Animals || iTunes: #11 || Radio: #1 || Spotify: #4 (=)
(05) Shake It Off || iTunes: #7 || Radio: #5 || Spotify: N/A (=)
(06) Uptown Funk || iTunes: #3 || Radio: #58 || Spotify: #15 (+12)
(07) Habits (Stay High) || iTunes: #26 || Radio: #2 || Spotify: #9 (-1)
(08) I'm Not The Only One || iTunes: #9 || Radio: #9 || Spotify: #13 (-1)
(09) Love Me Harder || iTunes: #15 || Radio: #10 || Spotify: #2 (=)
(10) The Heart Wants What It Wants || iTunes: #8 || Radio: #64 || Spotify: #5 (+10)
(11) Jealous || iTunes: #10 || Radio: #12 || Spotify: #6 (-3)
(12) I Don't F**k With You || iTunes: #16 || Radio: #25 || Spotify: #3 (-1)
(13) Lips Are Movin' || iTunes: #6 || Radio: #54 || Spotify: #17 (+6)
(14) Bang Bang || iTunes: #14 || Radio: #15 || Spotify: #16 (-2)
(15) Tuesday || iTunes: #20 || Radio: #24 || Spotify: #7 (-2)
(16) Don't || iTunes: #24 || Radio: #3 || Spotify: #29 (-6)
(17) Waves || iTunes: #22 || Radio: #6 || Spotify: #42 (-3)
(18) Trumpets || iTunes: #21 || Radio: #17 || Spotify: #12 (-1)
(19) No Type || iTunes: #35 || Radio: #56 || Spotify: #19 (-3)
(20) Blame || iTunes: #32 || Radio: #7 || Spotify: #23 (+1)
The problem with some hits these days is that they peak too fast on iTunes, and by the time radio catches up they don't chart too well. Or they peak decently, but could've peaked much higher. There are plenty of examples this past year: Burn, Don't, Waves, Trumpets, Blame, Cool Kids, Boom Clap, Habits, Latch, 2 On to name a few.
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That's why you end up with songs like "Counting Stars". which got stuck at #2. but spent 25 weeks in the Top Ten. The inability to get the parts of the formula to correlate properly leads to a Top Three hit that misses #1 but stays around forever in the Top Ten and Top 40.
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Member Since: 12/15/2008
Posts: 38,248
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Quote:
Originally posted by brianc33616
That's why you end up with songs like "Counting Stars". which got stuck at #2. but spent 25 weeks in the Top Ten. The inability to get the parts of the formula to correlate properly leads to a Top Three hit that misses #1 but stays around forever in the Top Ten and Top 40.
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It's hard because yeah, there are many points of view but the chart should represent the most popular song that especific week
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ATRL Contributor
Member Since: 4/5/2014
Posts: 5,828
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Quote:
Originally posted by alexanderao
Counting Stars and Fancy beg to differ. 
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Counting Stars would have too many of its points counted as 2013. This discussion relates to the 2014 Calendar Year, if Billboard would wait until early January (like Soundscan and Mediabase) to release the biggest hits of the year. Also, AATB had streaming numbers much higher than Fancy (On-Demand and You Tube), and is still selling over 100,000 units a week aftersurpassing Fancy's sales total. Fancy also topped the chart at a somewhat less competitive time than AATB. Remember both Trainor and Swift's SIO had huge numbers in all areas, and for three straight months had point totals twice that of the #3 song.
The biggest difference is AATB was stronger on AC and Hot AC, and still managed a Top Ten on Rhythmic, while Fancy topped Rhythmic and hit the Top Three at Urban. Iggy might have an airplay advantage, but Megahn would be ahead in downloads, and both streaming types. So she would beat Fancy for the 2014 Calendar Year.
When the Billboard Music Awards are held next spring, they take into account March to March Chart Action, AATB will rank ahead of Fancy, but Happy may have too many of its points still in to take the award. I hope they do end of March 2014 to end of March 2015. That would level out the playing field to an extent.by knocking off some of Happy's points early in 2015.
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ATRL Contributor
Member Since: 4/5/2014
Posts: 5,828
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Quote:
Originally posted by Ger-55
Waiit, Ed is going to perform "Thinking Out Loud" on VSFS I forgot about that
So far I feel Taylor has like 5 weeks on lock, it's hard to say "Oh, 8, 9 or whatever" since you don't know which song can make the difference and explode on sales and goes viral |
True. Remember everyone thought AATB had 10-11 or even 12 weeks with no challengers. Then Taylor Swift released Blank Space and its video. which stopped AATB at 8 weeks.
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Member Since: 2/8/2014
Posts: 9,232
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Blank Space remains untouchable right now. It sells 300k per week, airplay already crossed 100m before Christmas freeze and not to mention its monster streaming points. No songs can dethrone it for upcoming weeks. I predict it remains on top of the chart until mid January or February. 10+ weeks at no.1 pretty on lock
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Member Since: 1/6/2009
Posts: 2,574
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You guys can't predict the chart with just Spotify for streaming. Youtube and Vevo make the majority.
And why isn't 7/11 in your predictions? The song hit Top 10 on iTunes and it will chart based off it's Youtube views alone.
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