When something's obvious, it's just obvious. You say that like after a non-event era she can surprise release and sell UA numbers. It's just not realistic.
The thing is, she's allowed to flop. She's 10 years in to her career, has 7 successful albums/eras under her belt (each visually and socially unique/different from the last), 13 #1 singles (more than any of the other current pop girls). There was a media circus surrounding her when she got bashed by Chris Brown, so even older people who've never heard her songs know who she is. The GP still pays attention to her fashion and what she wears when she goes to an Italian restaurant in L.A. every night. The point is, she's penetrated pop culture enough to come back from flopping. She's not flopping a year in to her fledgling career. She's already achieved so much, and she's still beautiful/thin/youthful looking, so it won't be hard for her to come back from this. At all. Even Madonna flopped in the early-mid 90s. Again, when she was also 10 years into her career and achieved so much. So did Mariah. Also when she was 10 years into her career with Glitter.