Fun and Kelly Clarkson are major nominees this year. So they are more likely to get it. And Pink shouldn't even be in this discussion. She is obviously the weakest link this year since she couldn't even a vocal nomination unlike the others.
I stan for P!nk first and foremost, but I have to be neutral, and in my opinion Ceremonials is better than TTAL. It's just so unique and mature and artful. I hope it wins.