| |
Discussion: Romney Hits the 50 Percent Mark, With a Clear Edge on the Ec
Banned
Member Since: 6/19/2011
Posts: 4,250
|
Romney Hits the 50 Percent Mark, With a Clear Edge on the Ec
Quote:
Mitt Romney has seized further advantage on economic issues at the core of the 2012 campaign, taking him to 50 percent support among likely voters vs. 47 percent for Barack Obama – Romney’s highest vote-preference result of the contest to date.
The difference between the two candidates is within the margin of sampling error in the latest ABC News/Washington Post daily tracking poll, and their individual support levels have not significantly changed. But the momentum on underlying issues and attributes is Romney’s.
See PDF with full results and charts here.
Romney’s gains are clear especially in results on the economy. This poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates, finds that likely voters now pick Romney over Obama in trust to handle the economy by 52-43 percent – the first time either candidate has held a clear lead over the other on this central issue.
Equally important, Romney has erased Obama’s customary advantage on which candidate better understands the economic problems of average Americans. Today, 48 percent pick Obama, 46 percent Romney – essentially a dead heat. Yesterday and today mark the first time in the campaign that Obama hasn’t had at least a marginally significant lead on economic empathy.
Within-group trends on both these economic measures were covered in yesterday’s analysis; they reflect movement in Romney’s direction almost exclusively among white men, and particularly among less-educated white men.
SIGNALS – There are other signals of Romney’s gains. Expectations are one: Fifty-two percent of likely voters now expect Obama to win the election, down from a peak of 61 percent in late September. Forty percent expect Romney to win – still well fewer than half, but up by 8 percentage points.
Notably, political independents divide by 42-46 percent on whether they expect Obama or Romney to win; that’s shifted dramatically from 61-31 percent in Obama’s favor. Whites, likewise, have moved from a 55-38 percent expectation in Obama’s favor Sept. 29 to 44-48 percent now.
Romney is more competitive in another area, as well – international affairs. Even though likely voters by 2-1 picked Obama as the winner of Monday’s debate on foreign policy, comfort with Romney on the issue nonetheless has progressed. He runs essentially evenly with Obama in trust to handle international affairs, 48-47 percent, Obama-Romney; they were about this close on Monday, but it was +7 for Obama in mid-October and +8 in early September.
Obama retains a larger numerical (but not significant) edge on another issue, trust to better advance the interests of the middle class, 50-45 percent. It was similar, 51-43 percent, when last asked in an ABC/Post poll completed Sept. 9.
In other results, Obama has a 49 percent job approval rating among likely voters – it’s been 49 or 50 percent steadily since mid-October – but more “strongly” disapprove than strongly approve, 41 percent vs. 30 percent – an intensity gap that may work against him.
abc post poll 2012 election 102512 Romney Hits the 50 Percent Mark, With a Clear Edge on the Economy
HORSE RACE – Romney never before has exceeded 49 percent support in ABC/Post polls, making his 50 percent a new high numerically. That includes new highs among a range of groups – including 60 percent support among whites, 56 percent among white women, 58 percent among middle- to upper-middle income adults and 83 percent among conservatives.
Most strikingly, Romney’s advanced to 57 percent support among independents. They’re a changeable group, less rooted in partisan predispositions, so their eventual preferences – and their turnout – are uncertain. But they’re key to Romney’s current fortunes; he’s improved among independents by 9 points in the past week.
The debates are one apparent reason. By a broad 47-10 percent, independents say the debates left them with a better rather than a worse impression of Romney. In the same group, by contrast, just 17 percent say their impression of Obama improved – and 26 percent say it got worse.
Polarization, meantime, is extreme; Obama is at a new high in support among nonwhites, 80 percent, and continues to pull in broad support from younger adults – six in 10 of those younger than 40. All the same, at 61 percent, his support among unmarried women, a core Democratic group, has reached a new low, chiefly because he’s slipped among unmarried white women.
Still, the gender gap overall remains wide: women for Obama by 54-43 percent; men for Romney by 57-40 percent.
As noted, the overall 3-point gap between Romney and Obama in this poll is not statistically significant. Given the sample size, it would take a difference of greater than 6 points for the result to be significant at the customary 95 percent confidence level, or more than 5 points at a less-stringent 90 percent confidence level (referred to as a “slight” or marginal difference).
While the race, then, remains close, Romney’s momentum has come in time for most voters: Thirty-seven percent of likely voters say they’ve voted early or plan to, but that includes far fewer, 8 percent, who already have done so. It’s a number that’s growing daily, putting each campaign’s get-out-the-vote efforts to the critical test.
METHODOLOGY – This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone Oct. 21-24, 2012, among a random national sample of 1,386 likely voters, including landline and cell-phone-only respondents. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3 points, including design effect. (Questions 12f, 12h and 21 were asked Oct. 23-24 among 707 likely voters; those results have a 4.5-point error margin.) The survey was produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates of New York, N.Y., with sampling, data collection and tabulation by Abt-SRBI of New York, N.Y.
|
http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics...n-the-economy/
|
|
|
|
Member Since: 8/26/2011
Posts: 1,569
|
These last few days have been so intense.
|
|
|
|
Member Since: 10/29/2010
Posts: 29,249
|
Oct. 25th sis? These are outdated polls.
|
|
|
|
Member Since: 4/2/2012
Posts: 278
|
This is going to be very, very close but I think Mitt will pull it out. He has independents in the bag and undecideds rarely go as a group towards the incumbent.
|
|
|
|
Member Since: 8/16/2010
Posts: 15,137
|
 @ this "new poll" being from October 25th. Get that hit thread. 
|
|
|
|
Banned
Member Since: 6/19/2011
Posts: 4,250
|
Quote:
Originally posted by TN05
This is going to be very, very close but I think Mitt will pull it out. He has independents in the bag and undecideds rarely go as a group towards the incumbent.
|
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
|
|
|
|
Member Since: 9/25/2001
Posts: 26,816
|
They say it is close like this every 4 years.
Y'all lettin' that media eat you up.
|
|
|
|
Member Since: 8/16/2010
Posts: 15,137
|
Quote:
Originally posted by Rainbows
They say it is close like this every 4 years.
Y'all lettin' that media eat you up.
|
Basically. They need ratings and website hits.
|
|
|
|
Member Since: 11/27/2008
Posts: 78,826
|
October 25th? Gurl this was before Hurricane Sandy played her role.
|
|
|
|
Member Since: 1/10/2011
Posts: 3,484
|
|
|
|
|
Member Since: 12/26/2011
Posts: 14,707
|
|
|
|
|
Member Since: 11/11/2010
Posts: 28,420
|
Sandy changed these numbers around. But we'll see. 
|
|
|
|
Member Since: 12/28/2011
Posts: 13,440
|
If Romney has an edge on the economy it's simply because he refuses to spell out an actual plan on what he is going to do to improve it. People are foolish enough to simply hope for the best without seeing an actual strategy and are quick to bash Obama because the economy isn't perfect so they think anyone will do a better job. Even though the economy IS better overall than it was when he took office in that absolute MESS.
|
|
|
|
Member Since: 2/9/2008
Posts: 32,819
|
Quote:
|
This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone Oct. 21-24, 2012,
|
Why are you posting two-week-old "news?"
|
|
|
|
|
|
