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Mitt Romney likely election day victory indicated by latest
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If the election were held today Mitt Romney would win 311 electoral votes while Barack Obama would win in states worth 227 electoral votes according to the latest polling data available today.
The Rasmussen Reports Presidential Daily Tracking poll released today shows President Obama leading over Mitt Romney by a 49 percent to 47 percent margin. The new Gallup Tracking poll released today shows Romney leading 51 percent to 46 percent. Today's release of the QStarNews Daily Tracking Poll shows a 51 percent to 47 percent lead for Mitt Romney. These are the most accurate and least skewed polls among those currently included in the Real Clear Politics average of presidential polls.
The presidential race is decided by the votes of the states that send the electors to the electoral college who will actually elect the next president under our Constitution. State polls released today and recently are the basis for the analysis below. As former Clinton political consultant Dick Morris and others have pointed out, the undecided vote in a presidential election will always heavily favor the challenging candidate by election day. This analysis will be by regions of the country and the key swing states within them. The map above shows the map based on this analysis and projection of electoral votes.
Northeast: Rhode Island, Massachusetts and Vermont are strongly supporting Obama. Most of the polling RCP shows for Connecticut and Maine are old polls, but a recent Rasmussen survey for Connecticut has Obama leading by six percent, 51 percent to 45 percent. New Hampshire is the key swing state Romney leads in the non-skewed polls included in the RCP average of polls in this state. New York is solidly blue for Obama also.
New Jersey leans toward Obama while Delaware, Maryland and Washington DC all strongly favor Obama. Pennsylvania is now in play and a recent Susquehanna poll shows Romney leading by four percent, but other polls shows Obama with 50 percent and a lead in the state.
South: This region is Romney's strongest area as it has been for Republicans in recent presidential elections. West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana and Arkansas are all solidly “red” and Romney states. Virginia, North Carolina and Florida are the key swing states in the South. There are some heavily-skewed polls favoring Obama from Virginia but the RCP average favors Romney and Romney leads in the three more credible polls listed by RCP. The heavily skewed CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac poll is dismissed as an outlier. Clearly Romney is leading in Viriginia. North Carolina is a similar story but Romney leads or is tied in all the polls there and leads in the RCP average.
Florida is considered to the be big prize among Southern swing states. There are eight polls included in the RCP average and Mitt Romney is leading or tied in six of them as well as the RCP average itself. Romney has significantly gained in most polls in Florida over the last couple weeks. A Rasmussen survey of Florida released recently shows Romney leading by a 50 percent to 48 percent margin. Florida is upgraded to a likely Romney state.
Midwest: Indiana and Missouri are likely Republican for Romney while Michigan and Minnesota lean toward Obama. Obama's home state of Illinois is solid blue. Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota and North Dakota are all likely Romney states. The leaves this region's swing states of Ohio, Wisconsin and Iowa. The RCP average for Ohio has many skewed polls as well. The credible polls in Ohio (ARG, Rasmussen and Gravis) would show show the race tied at 47.7. This is basically tied and the undecided voters will break it in favor Romney.
The recent polls for Michigan show it leaning toward Obama but the undecided voters will put Romney over 50 percent in Michigan.
The RCP average of Wisconsin includes several skewed polls and the latest poll from Rasmussen poll showing the race within the poll's margin of error. Remember, the undecided voters tip Wisconsin narrowly to Romney.
The latest poll of Iowa by Democrat-leaning PPP shows Romney leading 49 percent to 48 percent. Iowa will definitely go for Romney in November.
Southwest: Texas and Arizona are going solidly for Romney while the more competitive New Mexico leaning toward Obama.
Rocky Mountains: Montana, Idaho, Wyoming and Utah are all strongly for Romney. Nevada and Colorado are the swing states in the Rocky Mountains. While the RCP average of polls in Colorado includes several skewed polls, but Romney leads in most of the polls and in the RCP average itself after having gained ground in polls in Colorado the last couple weeks. The reputable polls in Nevada show the state to be moving in Obama's direction with several polls showing the president at 50 percent in Nevada. Nevada moves to Obama for this projection.
Pacific: California is solidly for Obama while Washington state is likely to be won by Obama, and Oregon is still leaning to Obama.
Alaska will be a solid Romney state while Hawaii will be strongly for Obama.
The result is Mitt Romney leaning the states above showing various shades of red or pink that are worth 311 electoral votes while Obama leads in the blue states worth 227 electoral votes. The states in blue and red in this map are blue where Obama has at least 50 percent and therefore is likely to win that state, while those states in red are where Romney has 50 percent in the credible polls and is likely to win those states. Pink and light blue states are the one where neither candidate is polling at 50 or higher in the credible polls.
The controversy or arguable part of this analysis might come down to the eight states showing in pink on the map. Obama has 227 electoral votes on the map including the electoral votes of light blue Oregon. Mitt Romney has 220 in red. Virginia and North Carolina both showing Romney leading in the RCP averages so clearly he's going to win those two states. Their 28 electoral votes puts Romney at 248 electoral votes. Karl Rove makes a strong and convincing case for Romney winning Ohio as does the latest Rasmussen poll. New Hampshire is very close in the RCP average and will be carried by Romney. Those 22 electoral votes put Romney at exactly 270. If one follows the conventional wisdom and some of the skewed polls too, and give Michigan, Wisconsin, and Iowa to Obama, that would put Obama up to 259 electoral votes. That leaves only Colorado where it's quite close and the undecided voters will push that state into Romney's column. That gives Romney 279 electoral votes.
That would result in 279 electoral votes for Mitt Romney and 259 electoral votes for Barack Obama. That would match the projection that Karl Rove published earlier today.
Despite the pattern of skewed polls, most of the commissioned by the mainstream media, the overall electoral landscape is looking more and more favorable for Romney. But many others in the media project very favorable maps and projections for Obama but those doing so fail to realize or accept how heavily-skewed polls distort any average or analysis that relies on them.
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http://www.examiner.com/article/mitt...y-latest-polls
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