Discussion: Do you switch doors?

Rihlana

Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?

What do you do? Do you stay with door No. 1 or do you switch to door No. 2?

SebaMonster

Switch.

JEWRJEWR

what if i would rather get the goat

Buddy

B'Day

Quote:

Originally posted by JEWRJEWR

what if i would rather get the goat

Stay. Go with your gut instinct/your first choice

Lukey

What

What show am I on?

Dylobs

Prismy

Always switch.

HAPPI•LIL•PILL

Quote:

Originally posted by JEWRJEWR

what if i would rather get the goat

What if the car's key is on the goat's neck?

KasioKas

Why would I switch if I know the car is in door number 1 though? I don't think you explained this properly, do the rewards change after each turn or do they stay the same, because if they stay the same any idiot knows to remain with door 1 to get the car.

Rihlana

Quote:

Originally posted by KasioKas

Why would I switch if I know the car is in door number 1 though? I don't think you explained this properly, do the rewards change after each turn or do they stay the same, because if they stay the some any idiot knows to remain with door 1 to get the car.

Alright, let me try

You chose Door 1. The host, who knows where the car is, opens door 3 to reveal a goat. He gives you a chance to switch to door 2. Do you switch?

It doesn't matter really which door you chose, it's merely an example. You choose a door, the host opens a door with a goat behind it and asks you whether you want to swap in all cases. So what's behind the doors can change each time, but the process never does.

There is a statistically better option

KasioKas

Quote:

Originally posted by Rihlana

Alright, let me try

You chose Door 1. The host, who knows where the car is, opens door 3 to reveal a goat. He gives you a chance to switch to door 2. Do you switch?

It doesn't matter really which door you chose, it's merely an example. You choose a door, the host opens a door with a goat behind it and asks you whether you want to swap in all cases. So what's behind the doors can change each time, but the process never does.

There is a statistically better option

if initially you've been told what door the car is behind, just stick with that door, I don't see why I'd want to change my option when I've already been told the answer beforehand. The host is just trying to make you switch so you don't get the car.

Edit: But if you're not told what door the car is behind, the host is just trying to give you paranoia, i'd still stick with my inital answer.

Rihlana

Quote:

Originally posted by KasioKas

if initially you've been told what door the car is behind, just stick with that door, I don't see why I'd want to change my option when I've already been told the answer beforehand. The host is just trying to make you switch so you don't get the car.

Edit: But if you're not told what door the car is behind, the host is just trying to give you paranoia, i'd still stick with my inital answer.

You have no idea which door the car is behind, but the host does, that's why he can deliberately choose to open a door with a goat behind it before asking whether you want to switch

Prismy

It's about statistics guys. The host will ALWAYS open a door with a goat for you no matter what you pick initially. He's not trying to confuse or trick you.

You increase your chances of winning when you switch.

Free hugs

Quote:

Originally posted by Prismy

You increase your chances of winning when you switch.

No you don't fatty

Rihlana

Quote:

Originally posted by Prismy

It's about statistics guys. The host will ALWAYS open a door with a goat for you no matter what you pick initially. He's not trying to confuse or trick you.

You increase your chances of winning when you switch.

Quote:

Originally posted by Free hugs

No you don't fatty

KasioKas

Quote:

Originally posted by Free hugs

No you don't fatty

KillingYourCareer

Oh yeah there's this TV game in Italy where you have 20 contestants, each representing a region of Italy, with a box. The one who gets picked has to call the other boxes and there might be money or useless stuff inside. And the box he has at the end contains what he's going to bring home. He has the chance to change it several time throughout the game. Well, if I were there, I wouldn't switch. I'd stick to my Lombardia box

Prismy

Quote:

Originally posted by Free hugs

No you don't fatty

There are 3 doors - 2 goats and 1 car.

The probability of choosing a door with a goat initially is 2/3. The host must always open another door with a goat, meaning if you switch you'll get the car.

The other scenario is you choosing a door with a car from the start, which only has a probability of 1/3.

Lukey

Quote:

Originally posted by Prismy

There are 3 doors - 2 goats and 1 car.

The probability of choosing a door with a goat initially is 2/3. The host must always open another door with a goat, meaning if you switch you'll get the car.

The other scenario is you choosing a door with a car from the start, which only has a probability of 1/3.

What