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Chart Listings: BB: Yeezus 500K, J Cole 200K, Mac Miller 100K
Member Since: 12/31/2010
Posts: 26,257
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Billboard predicts 500K for 'Yeezus'
Quote:
While Kanye West's new album "Yeezus" hasn't been released yet, sales forecasters in the music industry are buzzing about how much the set could sell in its first week.
Those in the know suggest the album, due out June 18, may sell 500,000 copies in its first week. Readers might wonder: How do said forecasters come up with a projected sales figure -- when the album isn't even on sale yet?
Basically, these skilled sources make it their business to crunch numbers all day long. Sales forecasts, such as this one for "Yeezus," are based on early orders from retailers, first-week performance of comparable albums, media exposure, radio and YouTube trends for an album's first single, and so forth. These sources each have their own forecast model, so to speak, that helps generate sales projections.
Sometimes, depending on how far out we are from an album's release, a forecast can be wildly different from the final outcome. In general, you can best guess an album's debut sales week once it's actually on sale.
For example, on March 11, sources told Billboard that Justin Timberlake's "The 20/20 Experience" (not due out until March 19), might sell 500,000 in its debut week. Ultimately, that figure got much bigger, as the album performed stronger than anticipated. It finished with a No. 1 debut on the Billboard 200 chart, selling 968,000 copies in its first week, according to Nielsen SoundScan.
Last month, on May 17, forecasters projected that Daft Punk's "Random Access Memories" -- due out four days later -- could sell between 250,000 and 300,000 in its first week. The album sold even better -- moving 339,000 in its debut frame.
West's last album was a collaborative effort with Jay-Z, "Watch the Throne." That set debuted at No. 1 in 2011 with 436,000 copies sold in its first week -- mostly from sales driven by an exclusive early deal with the iTunes Store. (The set was available exclusively through iTunes for its first four days of release, and then went wide to all digital and physical retailers after that.)
West's last solo studio album, 2010's "My Beautiful Dark Twisted Fantasy," arrived during Thanksgiving week of that year, and debuted at No. 1 with 496,000 sold.
Unlike both of those albums, West's new "Yeezus" wasn't preceded by a single aimed towards radio airplay. Shockingly, "Yeezus" has yet to leak (as of June 12). In comparison, another album due out the same day as "Yeezus," J. Cole's "Born Sinner," leaked to the Web on June 7. Cole quickly posted a stream of the album to his web site, along with a prompt to urge fans to pre-order the album via iTunes.
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Source: http://www.billboard.com/articles/ne...-in-first-week
Only Kanye could release no official music before the dropping of an album and only announce the album a month before its release and have these sort of predictions. 
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ATRL Contributor
Member Since: 11/5/2011
Posts: 100,491
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I knew it. He really doesn't need any hype. The urban community always support him, so I'm not surprised he's opening big. That's slightly bigger than his last album, which is even more impressive 
I'm sure these are low-end predictions, so it may very well be in the 600K 
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Member Since: 1/27/2006
Posts: 51,546
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Quote:
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are based on early orders from retailers, first-week performance of comparable albums, media exposure, radio and YouTube trends for an album's first single, and so forth.
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Not slaying predictions missing three of the few components it takes for them to come up with them. 
Can't wait to hear it. 
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Member Since: 12/31/2010
Posts: 26,257
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Quote:
Originally posted by umichgrad07
I knew it. He really doesn't need any hype. The urban community always support him, so I'm not surprised he's opening big. That's slightly bigger than his last album, which is even more impressive |
Completely agree, Kanye is a hip-hop legend in the making.  His creativity, talent, and innovation is all he needs in order to be successful in this industry. Not very many artists can say that.
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Member Since: 1/8/2011
Posts: 27,650
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Wow, thankfully this won't be a messy release.
edit: Read it, sounds more like an assumption based off of past 1st week sales; we'll see.
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Member Since: 2/4/2012
Posts: 7,821
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KingYe better slay a bit 
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Member Since: 8/10/2010
Posts: 14,634
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Eh we'll see when the release date nears.
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Member Since: 7/30/2010
Posts: 20,632
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I'm predicting around the same as well. There's no way he's doing less than 250k, imo.
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Member Since: 12/22/2011
Posts: 55,626
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Well, it does seem interesting all of this media exposure with the crazy interviews for controversy are happening right before his album comes out. I'm not surprised he does have an established fanbase and his recent antics are building more anticipation.
He still won't win grammy's in the main categories like he desires and will continue to be who he is so good on him for his success. I expect him to boast about not having a top 10 hit but selling xyz amount and then later in the era a meltdown of whatever random thing is consuming his mind.
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Member Since: 12/14/2011
Posts: 21,274
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Well damn. 
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Member Since: 1/13/2012
Posts: 17,447
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Not surprising, he always has huge opening numbers.
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Member Since: 11/17/2011
Posts: 52,363
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he'll do double
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Member Since: 1/24/2012
Posts: 3,704
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Member Since: 3/13/2012
Posts: 9,318
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I think he'll do a bit more.
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Member Since: 9/17/2012
Posts: 9,591
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Quote:
Originally posted by castrobabytiger
he'll do double
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No, I just won't allow him to come for Speak Now's 1,047,000-copies-sold-first-week wig. 
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Member Since: 11/4/2010
Posts: 34,287
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I'd say his roof is 600k.
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Banned
Member Since: 6/25/2011
Posts: 37,192
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Quote:
Originally posted by Rico Shameless v2
Not slaying predictions missing three of the few components it takes for them to come up with them.
Can't wait to hear it. |
Right?! I kinda cackled at that list
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Member Since: 4/25/2011
Posts: 41,661
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I'm still skeptical but slay Kanye.
300K and I will be extremely happy. 400k I will be jumping up and down. 500K will prove his legend status 
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Member Since: 12/31/2010
Posts: 26,257
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Quote:
Originally posted by boodytay
No, I just won't allow him to come for Speak Now's 1,047,000-copies-sold-first-week wig. |
With proper promo and hype, Kanye could honestly get a 1 million debut.
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Banned
Member Since: 9/1/2012
Posts: 7,074
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I doubt it will be that high. But I can't see anything under 100K for him - which isn't bad considering this is a low-key release to the GP
edit: He's promoting? If so I expect higher
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