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Chart Listings: Hot 100 formula (1 point =1k sales= 667k AI =10k OD streams)
Member Since: 3/7/2011
Posts: 2,187
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Hot 100 formula (1 point =1k sales= 667k AI =10k OD streams)
Someone wrote this on Pulse
Quote:
623*1 + 1.5*55 + .1*0 ~700 chart points for T-Swizzledizzle
200*1 + 1.5*90 + .1*750 ~410 chart points for Flo-Rizzledizzle
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Is that about right?
Have anyone try to use this formula for past weeks (that are very close)? would you get the correct result? If so, this formula might be the "best" one yet to accurately predict Billboard Hot 100.
Formula is as followed:
200,000 sales = 200 * 1 points
100 million airplay = 100 * 1.5 points
750,000 on-demand stream = 750 * 0.1 points
Assume a song get 200,000 sales, 100 million airplay and 750,000 on-demand stream, its break down is:
sales: 200 points
airplay: 150 points
on-demand stream: 75 points
425 points total
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Member Since: 3/3/2011
Posts: 4,231
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that means approximately 38% sales, 57% Airplay and 4% Streaming.
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Member Since: 3/7/2011
Posts: 2,187
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Quote:
Originally posted by Radiance
that means approximately 38% sales, 57% Airplay and 4% Streaming.
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nope.
Look at Flo Rida as a "typical" high charting song.
200*1 + 1.5*90 + .1*750
200,000 sales = 200*1 = 200 points (49% sales)
90 million airplay = 90*1.5 = 135 points (33% airplay)
750,000 on-demand = 750 x 0.1 = 75 points (18% ODS)
410 points total.
It fluctuates depending on sales/airplay/on-demand ratio.
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Member Since: 8/16/2010
Posts: 19,703
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Does it work for previous weeks?
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Member Since: 3/7/2011
Posts: 2,187
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Quote:
Originally posted by Katy V.!
Does it work for previous weeks?
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That's what I am trying to figure out.
As far as I know, nobody has come up with an "accurate" formula yet that could explain every single week since the on-demand change.
Before on-demand, it would be easy to accurate predict using
200 sales = 200 points
150 airplay = 150 points
and get an accurate picture. Since the change, it has been a "challenge" but it makes prediction more fun because it is more unpredictable.
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Member Since: 3/7/2011
Posts: 2,187
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Last week # from Pulse forum
Quote:
Whistle : 217k, 66 AI, 749 ODS
Lights : 111k, 121 AI, 829 ODS
Carly : 156k, 87 AI, 783 ODS
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Quote:
Billboard 8/25/2012 top 10 with data.
1. Flo Rida - Whistle (219,000 digital downloads / 739,000 on-demand streams / 66 mil. Radio)
2. Ellie Goulding - Lights (111,000 digital downloads / 829,000 on-demand streams / 121 mil. Radio)
3. Carly Rae Jepsen - Call Me Maybe (156,000 digital downloads / 783,000 on-demand streams / 87 mil. Radio)
4. Katy Perry - Wide Awake (136,000 digital downloads / 529,000 on-demand streams / 117 mil. Radio)
9. Phillip Phillips - Home (212,000 digital downloads / 216,00 on-demand streams / 13 mil. Radio)
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I will calculate using this formula and see what will come up
Whistle 217*1 + 66*1.5 + 749*0.1 = 390.9
Lights: 111*1 + 121*1.5 + 829 * 0.1 = 375.4
Carly: 156*1 + 87*1.5 + 783 x 0.1 = 364.8
Wide Awake: 136*1 + 117 * 1.5 + 529 x 0.1 = 364.4
WOW. It accurately predict last week too. The top 4 are spot on.
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Member Since: 8/27/2011
Posts: 36,557
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Quote:
Originally posted by Dust2
Last week #
Whistle : 217k, 66 AI, 749 ODS
Lights : 111k, 121 AI, 829 ODS
Carly : 156k, 87 AI, 783 ODS
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Shouldn't Lights be higher than Whistle if Radio and Streaming make up the majority
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Member Since: 12/1/2011
Posts: 24,324
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even if we find the formula, with no way to measure streaming theres no point really :\
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Member Since: 3/7/2011
Posts: 2,187
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Quote:
Originally posted by rihannabiggestfan
Shouldn't Lights be higher than Whistle if Radio and Streaming make up the majority
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The formula is this not
1*S + 1.5*AI + 0.1*stream
it's
1* S (in which 200,000 sales = 200)
1.5 * airplay (in which 100 million airplay = 100)
0.1 * on-demand stream (in which 750,000 = 75)
Using Whistle and its data this week:
200,000 sales = 200*1 = 200 points (49% sales)
90 million airplay = 90*1.5 = 135 points (33% airplay)
750,000 on-demand = 750 x 0.1 = 75 points (18% ODS)
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Member Since: 3/7/2011
Posts: 2,187
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Found another week that we can test
http://pulsemusic.proboards.com/inde...=118347&page=6
Quote:
Let's use this case. On PAYPHONE debut week, it ranked lower than WE ARE YOUNG.
Using your method
WAY: 251k sales + 136M Airplay + 1150k streaming
Payphone: 493k sales + 36M Airplay + 0 streaming (didn't chart)
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We Are Young: 251 * 1 + 136 * 1.5 + 1,150 * 0.1 = 570 points
Payphone: 493 * 1 + 36*1.5 + 0 = 547 points
ANOTHER WEEK THIS FORMULA HAS ACCURATELY PREDICTED.
It is getting more credible to me. I am not saying this formula is accurate just yet but its prediction is so far so good. Need more data from past weeks and put this formula to the test.
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Member Since: 3/7/2011
Posts: 2,187
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Anyone want to test this?
It was a very close week.
http://pulsemusic.proboards.com/inde...=118347&page=7
Quote:
We have last week's though.
Call Me Maybe: 179,000 sales, 915,000 streams, 109 m AI.
Wide Awake: 151,000 sales, 580,000 streams, 117 m AI.
Payphone: 119,000 sales, 763,000 streams, 128 m AI.
Whistle: 237,000 sales, 614,000 streams, 53 m AI.
Lights: 122,000 sales, 848,000 streams, 109 m AI.
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Member Since: 11/10/2011
Posts: 14,820
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I can't do the calculations right now, but does it work for the Justin Bieber vs. fun. week?
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Member Since: 9/27/2011
Posts: 10,071
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Quote:
Originally posted by Tsuko
I can't do the calculations right now, but does it work for the Justin Bieber vs. fun. week?
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This week was the most suspicious to me, I want someone to calculate it
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Member Since: 11/10/2011
Posts: 14,820
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Quote:
Originally posted by PurrKaty
This week was the most suspicious to me, I want someone to calculate it
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Every time someone comes with a formula we always think it might work, and then when we try that week it fails, EVERY time. lol
There is a "hidden" component in the chart though, isn't there? Like the Youtube views and all that sort of stuff, it doesn't get reflected in the main three charts, so the difference could've been because of that.
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Member Since: 1/27/2006
Posts: 51,546
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April 4-11, 2012
1. fun. f/ Janelle Monae, "We Are Young" (363*1 = 363 + (104m*1.5 = 156 + (1.18m*0.1 = 118) = 637 pts
2. Justin Bieber, "Boyfriend" (521*1 = 521) + (40m*1.5 =60) + (0) = 581 pts
3. Gotye "Somebody That I Used To Know" (244*1 = 244) + (52m*1.5 = 78) + (961k*0.1 = 96.1) = 418.1 pts
4. The Wanted "Glad You Came" (169*1 = 169) + (95m*1.5 = 142.5) + (645k*0.1 - 64.5) = 376 pts
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Member Since: 12/6/2010
Posts: 4,317
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We have last week's though.
Call Me Maybe: 179,000 sales, 915,000 streams, 109 m AI.
Wide Awake: 151,000 sales, 580,000 streams, 117 m AI.
Payphone: 119,000 sales, 763,000 streams, 128 m AI.
Whistle: 237,000 sales, 614,000 streams, 53 m AI.
Lights: 122,000 sales, 848,000 streams, 109 m AI.
Call= 434
Wide= 384.5
Pay= 387.3
whistle= 377
lights= 370
Failssssss
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Member Since: 3/7/2011
Posts: 2,187
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Quote:
Originally posted by jj99
We have last week's though.
Call Me Maybe: 179,000 sales, 915,000 streams, 109 m AI.
Wide Awake: 151,000 sales, 580,000 streams, 117 m AI.
Payphone: 119,000 sales, 763,000 streams, 128 m AI.
Whistle: 237,000 sales, 614,000 streams, 53 m AI.
Lights: 122,000 sales, 848,000 streams, 109 m AI.
Call= 434
Wide= 384.5
Pay= 387.3
whistle= 377
lights= 370
Failssssss
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maybe.
maybe not.
Billboard Hot 100 actually has 4 components.
Sales (greatest weight)
Airplay (next most influential)
On-demand stream (next)
Passive online radio streaming (least)
If Wide Awake did better than Payphone in the passive online radio streaming component by a measly 2.9 points, that could explain why it was higher.
http://m.billboard.com/v/News/FunsWe...61449d50ab441d
Quote:
As previously announced, the Billboard Hot 100 songs chart undergoes a major renovation this week with the addition of a host of streaming services to its formula, including those that contribute to the newly-launched On-Demand Songs chart.
On-Demand Songs measures every on-demand play request and plays from unlimited listener-controlled radio channels on subscription services MOG, Muve Music, Rdio, Rhapsody, Slacker and Spotify. The plays tracked for On-Demand Songs include streams and tethered downloads by both paying and free/trial tier users.
The Hot 100 will also include non-demand radio streams from Rhapsody and Slacke, audio on-demand streams from MySpace and Guvera and plays on video request service Akoo. Yahoo! radio streams and Yahoo! on-demand video plays, which were previously part of the Hot 100 formula, will continue to contribute to the chart's rankings.
Additionally, the Hot 100's sales/airplay ratio has been adjusted to both accommodate the influx of additional streaming services to the chart's data pool and to slightly lessen the influence of sales, as the volume of digital downloads had increased exponentially since the chart's last formula modification in 2007.
The chart's new methodology continues to place the greatest weight on sales, with radio the next most influential component, followed by streaming. (Under the chart's new recipe, on-demand streams will be weighted twice as much as passive/online radio streaming).
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Member Since: 1/27/2006
Posts: 51,546
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The week after Bieber's download also worked. But I didn't check anything else. Passive streaming could explain the small blip in the post of jj99's.
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Member Since: 8/22/2011
Posts: 305
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Drop that streaming multiplier to 0.08 and it will be more accurate. I have been using close to that for my calculations, and it has worked every single time.
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Member Since: 8/22/2011
Posts: 305
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Multiply sales by 2.
Multiply airplay by 3.
Divide streaming by 6.
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