As the impounding of Singaporean troop carriers in Hong Kong exposes rising tensions between China and Singapore, the Lion City is unlikely to budge on core security interests concerning Beijing – its military relationship with Taiwan, worries over the South China Sea and its hosting of the U.S. military.
Singaporean officials, retired military officers and analysts stress that even while Singapore publicly plays down the spat, its leadership will not easily give in to what it sees as intimidation on matters of national importance.
All three points – Taiwan, the South China Sea and its deepening relationship with the Pentagon - reflect positions refined over decades as the tiny island state seeks to secure itself in a region now undergoing historic strategic shifts amid China's rise.
But those shifts mean the pressure is intensifying and Singapore risks being isolated as neighbors including the Philippines, a U.S. ally, and Malaysia tilt towards Beijing.
"Singapore will not be bullied and backed up against a wall," said Tim Huxley, an expert on Singapore's military at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. "(It) will take a determined stand on issues that it sees as important – and the importance of the issues at hand should not be underestimated."
Hong Kong customs last week seized nine armored troop carriers being shipped from Taiwan to Singapore after military exercises, prompting warnings from Beijing about maintaining ties with an island it regards as a breakaway province.
"VANGUARD OF ANTI-CHINA COALITION"
The dispute has erupted at a period of apparent vulnerability for Singapore, with its economy slowing and questions over the trade and security policies of incoming U.S. President Donald Trump.
Singapore has enhanced its long standing security relations with Washington over the last 18 months, and now hosts revolving deployments of vessels and U.S. P-8 surveillance planes that regional military sources say routinely target Chinese submarines.
While not a formal U.S. alliance partner, regional diplomats say it has become Washington's most important military relationship in Southeast Asia - more so since President Rodrigo Duterte's Philippine election win.
The shift has not gone unnoticed in Beijing.
"Singapore has gone from being seen as a useful facilitator of U.S.-China relations to being in the vanguard of an anti-China coalition, particularly on the South China Sea," said Zhang Baohui, a mainland security scholar at Hong Kong's Lingnan University. "The days of Beijing comfortably seeing Singapore has vaguely neutral are over, and it is reacting accordingly."
"China will find Singapore defiant and able to withstand pressure, but Singapore will find itself losing influence and more isolated within Southeast Asia as countries increasingly look to China," Zhang said.
Since the seizure of the armored vehicles, Beijing has stressed its opposition to any form of official contact with Taiwan. The influential state-run tabloid, the Global Times, has been more strident, suggesting the carriers should be "melted down".
While other state media have run commentaries critical of Singapore through the year, they have been quiet on the troop carrier impounding.
Singapore has discreetly circulated thousands of troops a year through Taiwan since 1975 – a presence that survived formalizing ties with Beijing under a "one China" policy in the early 1990s.
While Singapore increasingly exploits facilities in Australia and India, as well as sending troops to Brunei and Thailand, Taiwan remains an important to Singapore given the depth of military links and diverse training options, experts and retired Singaporean officers say.
"We are a small country and larger countries – not just China – routinely try intimidation. But because China wants us to accept the appellation of 'Chinese country' and because so many Singaporeans are of Chinese descent, their actions have a special resonance."
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-ho...-idUSKBN13R0N3
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