They both need to turn their next eras into huge comebacks.
Christina has the momentum of The Voice back her up, which will definitely help. Mariah has the whole post-baby comeback card to play.
"Bionic" may have been a more high-profile flop, but "Memoirs" didn't fare much better. However, it was an under-the-radar disappointment... which is almost worse. So both need this year to go well.
I'm going to give a slight edge to XTina, but it really depends on the material.
I'm not even a stan for either but Mariah's last album was GREAT and still flopped. Xtina did something different and it flopped. IMO if xtina does what she used to do, the album will do good, sorry mariah.
I don't think the answer is as clear as people think. Sure, Xtina has The Voice as a marketing platform, but is the stench of Bionic gone? And is Mariah's fanbase strong enough to reinvigorate interest in a new album? It could go either way.