Compare it to another recent movie that had strong female appeal and opened the Wednesday before Thanksgiving: Australia.
That did 2.2M on Wednesday and finished the 5 days w/ 20M.
Burlesque is half as long as Australia so it gets one more showtime every day, and it's more audience-friendly (it's easier to sit through a short splashy musical than a 3 hour historical drama). So I still think it's headed for 25M for the 5 days, my initial projection a month ago.
^LA Times is wrong about Tangled, I think based on the early numbers I'm seeing, it could hit as much as $70M. And part of me thinks it could go higher.