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HDD: 4th quarter first week predictions
I.B. BAD: THE MONEY QUARTER
From JT to Gaga, This Q4 Is Brimming With Star Power
September 27, 2013
As the music business enters Q4, a clash of the titans is shaping up among three hot label groups, each of them holding a pair of potential trump cards.
The competition began in earnest on Tuesday with the release of Drake’s latest, which some retail watchers expect to the biggest album of the fall; midweek retail reports suggest that it will sell around 700k in its first week for Monte Lipman’s new-release-marketshare leader Republic, on Slim and Baby’s Young Money/Cash Money. Republic follows that blockbuster next Tuesday (9/30), with exploding newcomer Lorde, through Jason Flom’s Lava, whose first-week estimates are rising daily; many now believe the total could land just south of 200k.
Peter Edge’s RCA, the #2 label, counters on 9/30 with the second Justin Timberlake LP of 2013, with a 500k+ bow anticipated, followed a week later by the label debut of Miley Cyrus (with first-week estimates now in the mid-200s). In her radical transformation, the former teen star has become a pop-culture phenomenon and a force of nature as well as a singles machine—last week alone, her two tracks collectively moved nearly 580k. But few others in the business had the belief in Cyrus’ potential that Edge and Tom Corson did at the time they signed her. Now, of course, what initially appeared to be a risky deal looks like a stroke of genius on the part of the ruling duo.
The third superpower, Jimmy Iovine’s IGA, the TEA leader year-to-date, will make a late charge with Eminem on 11/5 (early projection: 700k) and Lady Gaga on 11/11 (400-500k). The most anticipated indie release will be from Merge’s Arcade Fire (10/29), which some believe could go as high as 200k.
The Clear Channel brain trust—Bob Pittman, John Sykes and Tom Poleman—did exactly what they set out to do with the third edition of the iHeartRadio Music Festival, cementing the iHeart brand and setting the stage for its further expansion via a country fest, TV show and music player. It was Pittman, by the way, who made the streaming-rate deal with Warner Music’s Rob Wiesenthal, which could save CC tens of millions in the long haul. Insiders say neither UMG nor Sony Music is expected to follow suit in the near term.
Pandora’s legal victory over ASCAP last week, in which a judge ruled that the org must comply with the blanket streaming rate negotiated in its five-year deal with the Internet-radio operator, barring a successful appeal, could ultimately have a dramatic impact on ASCAP, BMI and SESAC, in that the publishers could opt to bypass them altogether. As one publisher noted, putting the situation in perspective, not even Lady Gaga could pay the rent off of her streaming revenues now, but that could change significantly down the line. As for Pandora, this win could turn out to be less significant than the appearance of the 800-pound gorilla that is iTunes Radio in terms of its own survival.
Just 10 months after Steve Barnett was chosen by UMG chieftain Lucian Grainge to take the reins of the former EMI Recorded Music operation in the U.S., the renamed Capitol Music Group is heating up. Last week, for the first time in recent memory, the Capitol label has snagged the top two positions on the Mediabase Pop charts, with Katy Perry’s “Roar” at #1 and Capital Cities’ “Safe and Sound” at #2.
CMG has also benefited from the A&R expertise of its affiliate, the Ted Cockle-led Virgin U.K., which is responsible for Emeli Sandé (whose debut album is nearing 400k in TEA stateside) and Bastille (whose first album bowed at #11 behind 34k two weeks ago), with Naughty Boy (whose “La La La” already a massive worldwide hit) on deck. CMG has been steadily gobbling marketshare and is now approaching 5.9% in TEA, bolstered by the Cadillac of catalogs, including The Beatles, Beach Boys, Rolling Stones and Sinatra.
Ivan Gavin, Barry Weiss’ longtime consigliore, left his post as COO of Republic & Island Def Jam last Friday (9/20) in what some insiders are calling an elective early retirement. The polarizing Gavin worked with Weiss during Jive/Zomba’s glory years in the ’90s and at RCA during the last decade before following him to UMG in November 2011.
The ratings for the first two weeks of The X Factor have been steadily slipping in what most observers believe is the make-or-break season for the U.S. edition of the Simon Cowell-created musical competition—and this before the other networks’ prime-time hits begin airing new episodes. Could the show be circling the drain?
Names in the rumor mill: John LoFrumento, Big Jon Platt, Atlantic, Allen Grubman, Sharon Osbourne and Randy Phillips.
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(JT)
I predict a bit more, but yas they sound about right.
I was hoping 600K-700K at least