ATRL Contributor
Member Since: 11/5/2011
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Billboard: "Close race" for #1
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With the Hot 100 to be released on Wednesday marking the first encompassing each song's first full week of airplay, sales and streaming (the three metrics that feed the Hot 100's data pool), what ranks could be expected for "Roar" and "Applause"?
"Roar" is currently at No. 14 on the building Radio Songs chart with 47 million all-format audience impressions. "Applause" is set to start perhaps just outside the airplay chart's top 40, currently boasting 23 million in audience.
Partial-week streaming figures show "Roar" at 3.2 million U.S. streams and "Applause" at 2.5 million, according to BDS. Both figures represent audio streams and YouTube plays for lyric videos and user-generated content. Gaga's official video for "Applause" premiered earlier today and will affect next week's chart. (Streaming data for this week's chart covers the week ending Aug. 18.)
Based on the rough numbers above, Perry could challenge for the Hot 100's summit (vaulting from its airplay-only-fueled No. 85 debut last week), while Lady Gaga is likely to debut in the top 10.
Can Perry soar to No. 1? Key are sales of Robin Thicke's "Blurred Lines" (featuring T.I. and Pharrell), which has led the Hot 100 for 10 weeks. The song will easily maintain its command on Radio Songs, which last week was fueled by a record-extending 227 million impressions. With such an expected large lead in airplay again for "Lines," the battle for No. 1 on the Hot 100 will seemingly come down to the download sales of "Lines." (In a potential roadblock, Perry simply has the misfortune of running up against the track with the biggest weekly radio audience dating to the Radio Songs chart's launch in 1990.)
Last week, "Lines" sold a hefty 346,000, according to Nielsen SoundScan, although the sum marked a 14% decline. This week’s sales projections for "Lines," according to industry sources, are for between 260,000 and 280,000. Overall streams for "Lines" should be near 7 million, down slightly from its sum last week (7.6 million).
So where does our prediction stand? Too close to call, with two days of radio airplay remaining, sales to be finalized and streaming data for the entire week yet to be compiled. (Sorry! But it simply appears that close a race …)
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