There is no way Harry Potter is going to lose out. It's just too big. The fanbase is phenomenal, and it's part 1 of the final installment. Harry Potter is posed to stomp the rest of the movies no matter how good they are. That's just the way it is.
Come January, a lot of you will have egg on your faces. I'll come explain to you children in a minute why Tron has a good chance of schooling those now-middle aged wizards.
Come January, a lot of you will have egg on your faces. I'll come explain to you children in a minute why Tron has a good chance of schooling those now-middle aged wizards.
@Celestial - the holiday box office period begins in November. It used to begin at Thanksgiving, but now it's early November. Every year it starts sooner. Likewise the Summer box office period used to start with Memorial Day weekend, but ever since Twister exploded the first weekend of May back in 1996, it's been pushed to the first week of May.
So Tron & Potter are in a battle for the holiday crown.
Potter will open huge and have a massive two-week gross after Thanksgiving. After that it will drop off severely, as the post-Thanksgiving to pre-Christmas period is a box-office graveyard.
Tron won't open as big, but December is the best month to release a film - if you can survive the clutter. Movies have tremendous legs in December, it's very common for a movie to gross 5-6 times its opening weekend. Tron looks like it can survive the clutter.
Disney has shown great faith in Tron. Not only have they been advertising it for nearly a year, but they've already greenlit sequels - they wouldn't do that if they didn't know it would be massive. Plus, it's Disney - no one has their marketing power.
The movie looks and feels fresh and new, it's not a SIXTH sequel.
Come December, it's clear which film will rule 3-D and Imax theatres.
HP movies never do that well. Unless I'm mistaken the Philosopher's Stone is still the most successful one in the US. I think DH will gross somewhere between $320-350 million.
HP movies never do that well. Unless I'm mistaken the Philosopher's Stone is still the most successful one in the US. I think DH will gross somewhere between $320-350 million.
320-350M in the US is pretty damn huge. But it's not record-breaking or anything, it's what The Lion King did back in 1994. You're right in that no HP movie has ever broken 400M in the US - something that's been done by Avatar, Spiderman, Dark Knight, Pirates 2, Toy Story 3, Shrek 2, Transformers 2, Star Wars Ep1 in the last 10 years.
The highest-grossing Potter movie got owned at the box-office by the likes of The Lion King:
1 Avatar Fox $760,506,683 2009^
2 Titanic Par. $600,788,188 1997
3 The Dark Knight WB $533,345,358 2008
4 Star Wars Fox $460,998,007 1977^
5 Shrek 2 DW $441,226,247 2004
6 E.T.: The Extra-Terrestrial Uni. $435,110,554 1982^
7 Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace Fox $431,088,301 1999
8 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest BV $423,315,812 2006
9 Toy Story 3 BV $414,638,013 2010
10 Spider-Man Sony $403,706,375 2002
11 Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen P/DW $402,111,870 2009
12 Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith Fox $380,270,577 2005
13 The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King NL $377,027,325 2003
14 Spider-Man 2 Sony $373,585,825 2004
15 The Passion of the Christ NM $370,782,930 2004^
16 Jurassic Park Uni. $357,067,947 1993
17 The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers NL $341,786,758 2002^
18 Finding Nemo BV $339,714,978 2003
19 Spider-Man 3 Sony $336,530,303 2007
20 Alice in Wonderland (2010) BV $334,191,110 2010
21 Forrest Gump Par. $329,694,499 1994
22 The Lion King BV $328,541,776 1994^
23 Shrek the Third P/DW $322,719,944 2007
24 Transformers P/DW $319,246,193 2007
25 Iron Man Par. $318,412,101 2008 26 Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone WB $317,575,550 2001
27 Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull Par. $317,101,119 2008
28 The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring NL $314,776,170 2001^
29 Iron Man 2 Par. $312,128,345 2010
30 Star Wars: Episode II - Attack of the Clones Fox $310,676,740 2002^
