Let's really get into it. Thanks Rih. rox!

First things first - thanks to his Best Actor win at the Venice Film Festival earlier today, Michael Fassbender is coming for his first nomination.

Get ready girls.

Now let's get into Best Actress!

If Viola Davis doesn't win this year, I'll be furious.

I don't know much about acting, but I'm impressed with Dominic Cooper in Devil's Double. Does he have a chance for nomination or some pre-nomination spotlight at least?

If she is pushed Supporting, she has it on lock.

If she's pushed Lead, it will be a much tougher battle. But Lead is kind of up in the air right now?

No. Let me save you the trouble of getting your hopes up.

No.

Harry Potter is gonna take those ALL!

Don't most front-runners come out in November and December?

The Help
Straw Dogs
Harry Potter

are gonna sweep

I wouldn't mind Viola winning and I haven't even watched 'The Help'

She's a shoe-in for Supporting, and I really think she could take Lead. There'll be more competition, but I can't think of from whom it will come.

Thanks.

Typically, yes.

But a good half of the contenders have already premiered at festivals.

Venice - one of the big European three (the other two are Cannes and Berlin) just ended tonight with its awards gala. But MANY of the Oscar contenders premiered here:
- Shame and A Dangerous Method, both of which star the aforementioned Mr. Fassbender
- The Descendents, which has given George Clooney some of the best reviews of his career (and put him in the lead of the Best Actor race)
- Albert Nobbs, which has done it's job of making Glenn Close look like a real contender.

Toronto, one of the big North American three (Sundance and either Telluride or New York would be the other two) just started.

Not a chance to Kate Winslet or Gwyneth Paltrow with Contagion?

Lead right now consists of a few almost locks, and a lot of ... maybes.

Glenn Close has gotten some of her best reviews in years for Albert Nobbs, and has already started her campaign by reminding everyone that she's never actually won. Usually, a biopic + starring role for a respected, overdue older actress equals a surefire win, but the take on the movie as a whole is .... meh. And who is going to see it?

Another contender is Elizabeth Olson (yes, the little sister of Mary-Kate and Ashley) who has had buzz all year. She'll definitely get nominated, but won't win.

The biggest unknown? Meryl Streep. Meryl is Meryl, so a nod makes sense - but advance word on The Iron Lady has not been flattering.

No. None at all.

There's a small chance for Kate Winslet in Carnage, but ONLY if she goes supporting.

But apparently the studio wants to campaign all four actors in lead. So, no Oscar race for Kate this year. She'll be content with her Emmy.

It's been awhile, but Best Animated Feature could be an interesting category to watch. With Cars 2 being a major disappointment, it's the first year in recent memory that PIxar hasn't release the surefire winner. So who takes it now? Maybe Rango? I worry it could be Happy Feet 2. Its predecessor was the last non-Pixar film to win BAF, which certainly gives it a sort of "historical" momentum—but that movie was a steaming pile of crap that had no place anywhere near the Oscars. If the sequel is even twice as good as Happy Feet, then its completely unworthy of a nomination as well. Where is this year's Persepolis or Spirited Away?

Elizabeth won't win for obvious reasons, and if The Iron Lady isn't getting the best reviews thus far, I'd say Viola's only competition is Glenn Close. It's not competition to be overlooked, though. Since Albert Nobbs is, as you mentioned, a biopic, and it features someone who has never won an Oscar, then they're likely to win. I think Viola could pull through because The Help is doing well at the box office and earning a lot of press, but Glenn's circumstances are enough to earn her the win.

Damn, really? When will this woman win again?! Julie & Julia was a great opportunity, and then she lost to Sandra freakin' Bullock (who I love, but, come on).

Legends like those aren't produced anymore, sis.

Anyway, I think Rango and Rio are contenders. Unless I have Rio's release date wrong.

Any chance for Arrietty?

Rio? But it's so forgettable. I have to assume that even Kung Fu Panda 2 has more of a shot.