The densely populated area from New York City to Boston could experience one of its ten biggest snowstorms on record early this week, as a textbook nor’easter takes shape over the next 48 hours. While local details are bound to evolve somewhat as the storm develops, the models are now in strong, consistent agreement on a potentially crippling snowstorm. Blizzard watches were hoisted on Sunday morning from eastern New Jersey to northeast Massachusetts, including the New York, Providence, and Boston metropolitan areas.
Despite the increasing skill of computer forecast models in recent years, this week’s threat emerged remarkably quickly. As recently as Friday, the model consensus was for a weaker storm that would sweep through the region from west to east, then strengthen well offshore. One of the first models to switch gears was the ECMWF, whose operational run issued at 00Z Friday night highlighted the risk of a potential blockbuster storm for the Northeast U.S. By Saturday morning, most other models had quickly joined the bandwagon. “All operational models now have the forecast of a major snowstorm/blizzard,” said NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center on Sunday morning.
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This is pretty much a text book case for a major winter storm/blizzard in southern New England. Potent shortwave dives southeast closes off south of Long Island as low pressure bombs out and tracks up the New England coast. The highly amplified pattern will allow for a slow moving/long duration storm.
We are now quite confident that this will be a major winter storm
and it has the potential to become historic for some locations.
More details to come on this rapidly approaching storm...
“Plumes” of projected total snowfall for Boston, based on an ensemble of more than 20 model solutions compiled at 09Z on Sunday, January 25 by NOAA’s Short Range Ensemble Forecast. The dark black line indicates the model mean, which suggests that 25-26” of snow is a strong possibility for Boston. Photo credit: NOAA Storm Prediction Center.
It says Albany is supposed to be getting up to a foot but we've barely gotten anything thus far and the weather for next week shows only a couple inches if that so IDK what to expect
Tuesdays are the worst.