Estimated % Influence of Components on Hot 100:

(Testing)

1. Love Yourself = 30% Sales + 35% Airplay + 35% Streaming
2. Sorry = 18% Sales + 40% Airplay + 42% Streaming
3. Stressed Out = 35% Sales + 35% Airplay + 30% Streaming
4. Hello = 20% Sales + 43% Airplay + 37% Streaming
5. My House = 47% Sales + 24% Airplay + 29% Streaming
6. Roses = 30% Sales + 36% Airplay + 34% Streaming
7. Hands To Myself = 35% Sales + 18% Airplay + 47% Streaming
8. Same Old Love = 18% Sales + 53% Airplay + 29% Streaming
9. Work = 67% Sales + 24% Airplay + 9% Streaming
10. Here = 16% Sales + 56% Airplay + 28% Streaming

11. Stitches = 16% Sales + 46% Airplay + 38% Streaming
12. Me, Myself & I = 35% Sales + 19% Airplay + 46% Streaming
13. In The Night = 16% Sales + 59% Airplay + 25% Streaming
14. Hotline Bling = 15% Sales + 39% Airplay + 46% Streaming
15. Like I'm Gonna Lose You = 19% Sales + 50% Airplay + 31% Streaming
16. Don't = 12% Sales + 25% Airplay + 63% Streaming
17. What Do You Mean? = 15% Sales + 23% Airplay + 62% Streaming
18. White Iverson = 18% Sales + 20% Airplay + 62% Streaming
19. Cake By The Ocean = 29% Sales + 31% Airplay + 40% Streaming
20. Jumpman = 17% Sales + 33% Airplay + 50% Streaming

So for the Top 20 this week = 26% Sales + 35% Airplay + 39% Streaming

Streaming > Airplay > Sales

Updated predictions

1. Pillowtalk 414 (debut)
2. Love Yourself 384 (-1) -1%
3. Sorry 352 (-1) -2%
4. Stressed Out 346 (-1) +0%
5. Hello 298 (-1) -8%
6. Work 252 (+3) +33%
7. My House 245 (-2) +17%
8. Summer Sixteen 238 (debut)
9. Roses 209 (-3) +1%
10. Me, Myself & I 203 (+2) +7%
11. Hands To Myself 187 (-4) -6%
12. Stitches 183 (-1) -3%
13. Same Old Love 177 (-5) -9%
14. In The Night 172 (-1) -4%
15. Here 171 (-5) -10%
16. One Call Away 162 (+6) +16%
17. Don't 161 (-1) +5%
18. Hotline Bling 160 (-4) -4%
19. Cake By The Ocean 157 (-1) +10%
20. What Do You Mean? 141 (-3) -8%
21. Jumpman 141 (-1) -3%
22. The Hills 139 (-1) -2%
23. Like I'm Gonna Lose You 137 (-8) -13%
24. White Iverson 134 (-5) -6%
25. Hide Away 130 (-1) +5%
26. I Know What You Did Last Summer 124 (-1) +1%
27. Say It 124 (=) +1%
28. Antidote 123 (-5) -8%
29. When We Were Young 119 (=) +3%
30. Die A Happy Man 118 (-4) -4%
31. 679 116 (-3) -1%
32. Down In The DM 112 (+1) +3%

35. Stand By You 100 (+2) +6%

42. Out Of The Woods 86 (+2) +5%

#4 seems like a good guess to me at the moment.

Based on predictions, songs since the second half of 2015 with 3+ sales T10 weeks, sub-T10 peak:
Downtown 9 weeks...#12. Would the chart formula change have vaulted them up to #10?
Die a Happy Man 6 weeks
One Call Away 5 weeks

"Die A Happy Man" would've gone Top 20, but I'm not throwing in the towel with that song yet either. In fact, four of the Top Five on Country Airplay are crossover worthy right now. I think the labels are about to push DAHM and "Break Up In A Small Town" since both have peaked at Country and the follow-ups are on the way up the chart.

I think "Home Alone Tonight" can crossover too, and it's already receiving some non-Country airplay if you compare Kworb's AI with MB's AI. HAT has sales, is getting some traction on Spotify, and Karen Fairchild got a lot of exposure singing lead on LBT's "Girl Crush" last year. "Dibs" the fourth is less likely to crossover, but would still fit pretty well on Hot AC.

Ugh Pillow Talk is okay but it doesn't deserve all that hype but oh well

Since the Superbowl Halftime Show is followed by the Grammys the following tracking period, I tweeted Gary and Silvio asking if UF could rechart should it reach the Top 25. With two back to back boosts, I think UF should be allowed back on the Hot 100.

LY, Sorry, and Roses are all well-balanced hits with the reweighting of metrics on the Hot 100. This proves BB made a good move. I just wish they had done so at the beginning of the 2016 Chart Year instead of waiting two months.

CBTO is pretty well rounded too.

You know Drake is going to end up debuting at like #4 or something, right? Like I feel like this always happens with Billboard.

I can see him at #6. Apple Music is hard to predict, but he's not going higher than that.

All of this.

Yea I'm kinda concerned that PT will have one of the largest drops from #1

Could he break Taylor Hicks record?

I feel like PT will drop, but stay in the top 10 its second week. It's growing on radio a lot each and every day. I think it'll have some longevity compared to other 1D singles and free-falling #1 debuts.

Pillowtalk is very stable on Spotify. It will drop quite a lot, but not too hard.

Which song has the largest drop from #1?

The ones I remember are:

Eminem - Lose Yourself: 1-9 (after 12 weeks at #1)
Santana - Maria Maria: 1-8 (after 10 weeks at #1)
Rihanna - What's My Name?: 1-7 (after 1 week at #1)
Mariah Carey - Don't forget about us: 1-7 (after 2 weeks at #1)
Britney Spears - Hold It Against Me: 1-6 (after debuting at #1)
Fantasia - I Believe: 1-6 (after debuting at #1)

What are you all talking about?
It's doing really great on radio, and if we take all the versions on itunes he's still #1.
Youtube and Spotify stream are AMAZING!
If it will drop it will drop to #3

It will drop at least 50% on sales and something like 40% on Youtube

It has a chance to stay top 5, but lower part of the top 10 seems more likely.

the question is - what will be zayn second week

what is the biggest fall from #1 spot?