If Gaga is nominated, I feel like she'll win. The GG recognition helps raise her profile a lot, she has the huge moment from last year's Oscars, and Diane has seven previous nominations in the category (a lowkey flashback to Gaga and Tony at last year's Grammy Awards).
I don't have any pictures but in the stream, you can see her genuinely smiling and looking so pleased that Lady GoldenGlobega won. She was clapping for her the entire time.