It really is like a DH situation. The song just lingering in 40s and 50s till the current single drops hard and then takes off. I can't see the song being huge on Pop, but I can Definetly see it being a slow burner and being around for a while. I want it to go higher than top 5

Omg. Yay.

This is nothing like the DH situation. DIL has 75M AI. Dark Horse was lingering around #20 with less than 5M AI.

Royals with a big decrease today on AC

Down to #4.

I'm talking about Pop radio alone though. sorry for confusion. and I realize that cause Beyoncé is an Urban radio monster lol

KATY PERRY – Dark Horse: 131.685 (+ 3.692)
and the video is not even out!! this would be a monster hit!

ONE DIRECTION – Story Of My Life: 114.090 (+ 1.637)
Love this song! this is having longetivity!!

MILEY CYRUS – Adore You: 28.322 (+ 0.675)
Another hit comming!! just wait until the Grammy Effect is over

AC 46 +4 ELLIE GOULDING Burn 33 +4

wait slay, I didn't notice 4 formats

Just some thoughts:

It'll be interesting to see how long Timber retains the #1 spot. Counting Stars moved up 26 spins today, but is obviously peaking/has already peaked. The Monster is freefalling (it fell over 500 spins today), and Burn looks to pass it in two or three days. If Counting Stars and Timber decrease fast enough, Burn has a very small, outside chance to be #1 on pop radio. If they don't decrease very fast, Dark Horse will be the next #1 as it is gaining at a much faster pace than Burn (1051 bullet for Burn, 1945 bullet for Dark Horse). Despite the very large gain Story Of My Life made today on pop radio (+258 spins), I believe that it will peak within the next 1-2 weeks and begin to freefall like The Monster is right now. Stay The Night and DWUW are already consistently falling, and Let Her Go should be able to grab the #8 spot quickly before Team overtakes it. Team is increasing at a moderate pace (741 bullet), so it should be able to make it to #7. However, it gets more complicated after that because even though The Monster is freefalling, it still has over 16,000 spins right now, while Stay The Night (the #7 song) has 11,446 spins. Team will need to keep consistently gaining if it wants to go any higher than #7. However, if SOML starts falling soon it should be able to get to #6. Say Something looks to peak on radio soon, as its bullet has decreased to 559. It is just a few hundred spins behind Team but is not gaining as fast. It should be able to hit #10 if DWUW continues to consistently fall. Pompeii could also peak soon, even though it is still very new to some listeners. In fact, its bullet of 517 is the lowest positive bullet in the top 17. Pompeii will probably peak at either #12 (the position it is at right now) or at #11, but it only has 8,092 spins compared to Team's (the #10 song) 10,280. Songs #13 through #16 (Demons, White Walls, Wake Me Up, and Sweater Weather in that order) are all freefalling, with Demons decreasing the fastest with a bullet of -1948. The gap between Demons and the #17 song (Young Girls) is just 1,296 spins, and Young Girls should easily be able to take the #13 spot as the aforementioned songs continue to freefall. Love Me Again and XO, the #18 and #19 songs, look like they are currently peaking, with bullets of 423 and 411. XO actually lost 24 spins and 853,000 audience impressions today. With these two about to start falling and Demons et al. freefalling, Adore You (#20) should be able to get to #14 or at least #15. Talk Dirty gained more than any other song in the top 100 today, adding 360 spins and moving up to #21. Like Dark Horse, I think it will easily coast up the charts without losing too much momentum, and should be able to crack the top 10 by the end of February.

Not to be rude, but you basically wrote an entire paragraph pointing out the obvious.

It more of predictions about the trends of current songs; which can easily end up changing/being wrong. For example, Treasure looked like it was pretty much dead at one point but ended up having a pretty good rebound overall. Things can change easily, so it can be fun to predict and analyze.

Maybe the Top 40 chart is just extremely predictable right now.

The only surprises are songs like Happy and Talk Dirty catapulting up, but now that they are, it's basically a given they'll reach or get near the top.

Treasure only stalled outside the Top 10 because of Get Lucky and Blurred Lines surging. It had a quick increase during its first few weeks. I knew it wasn't gonna peak by then but people do a little bit too much and keep saying something peaks when it just stabilizes (see Team atm)

http://kworb.net/radio/pop/archives/20130705.html

Not many songs straight up lose their bullet in a non-8th-day, non-freeze situation and recover from it. In fact, do we have any other examples of a song losing it's bullet by more than 100 spins and then rebounding the way Treasure did [Cee Lo Green comes to mind]? It was a very unique situation, so you can't act like people were freaking out over nothing.

I remember We R Who We R did it. The Other Side as well.

The song was on its 55th day in the Top 50 in that chart. Bruno songs don't peak on Pop radio before 8 weeks. It was also in the Top 10 of iTunes at the time. There was absolutely no reason for Pop radio to abandon it completely.

POP:

5 5 KATY PERRY Dark Horse 12700 10871 1829 90.599
+252 Spins
+146 Bullet
+2.837 Audience

RHYTHMIC:

6 5 KATY PERRY Dark Horse 3768 3249 519 22.285
+71 Spins
-42 Bullet
+0.464 Audience

HOT AC:

28 22 KATY PERRY Dark Horse 1273 712 561 10.259
+92 Spins
+44 Bullet
+0.927 Audience

Edit: too late

Dark Horse update will be around 4.228.